Ahead of SPY at 21 of 60 month-ends.
Same starting value · dividends reinvested
Selected allocation CAGR +10.7%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
4 Fund Combo
4 ETFs · U.S. small & mid cap · U.S. large cap · U.S. value
Where this allocation comes from
Paul Merriman · MarketWatch column · 2020
Also known as: Four Fund Combo · Paul Merriman 4 Fund Combo
S&P 500, US large-cap value, US small caps and US small-cap value at 25% each, tilting US stocks toward value and small caps.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 25% | SPY |
| US large-cap value | 25% | VTV |
| US small-cap blend | 25% | VIOO |
| US small-cap value | 25% | AVUV |
The small-cap slice uses VIOO, which tracks the same S&P 600 index as Merriman's IJR. Small-cap value uses AVUV, which listed in September 2019, so history starts then.
Source: irp.cdn-website.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
- $10,000 lump sum
- Monthly rebalancing
- Dividends reinvested
- Benchmark: SPY
- No taxes or fees
- $10,000 became
- $16,605 SPY alone: $17,597 −$992 vs SPY
- Annual return
- +10.7% SPY +12.0% -1.3pp vs SPY
- Max drawdown (month-end)
- -19.4% SPY -23.9% +4.5pp vs SPY Regained 10 mo after the low
- Below the high at period end
- -0.7% 2026-10
Key points for this allocation
- Every holding is in equities.
- Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 1.3%; the results reinvest dividends.
- During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -15.9%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Overview ⌄
Compare allocations
The same holdings at different splits. Pick a row to update everything below.
Exploration on Lifolio; these counts do not establish investment performance or preference.
Growth
Starting from $10,000, shown with SPY over the same window. Shaded bands mark major market crises.
Declines and recoveries
Month-end decline from the previous high. Closer to 0% means a smaller fall.
The deepest fall was -19.4%, regained 10 months after the low.
Values below 0% are loss periods
Calendar-year returns
Only years with all twelve months. The table also lists the deepest fall within each year (the in-year low).
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 1 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +11.7% | +17.7% | -11.0% |
| 2024 | +14.8% | +24.9% | -6.2% |
| 2023 | +18.8% | +26.2% | -10.8% |
| 2022 | -10.5% | -18.2% | -19.4% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Holdings
Holdings of the selected split and what each one is.
- AVUVAvantis US Small Cap Value ETF 25%
- SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 25%
A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index.
- VIOOVanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Index Fund ETF Shares 25%
- VTVVanguard Morningstar Value ETF 25%
Questions & methodology
Review calculation settings and how to interpret the selected allocation.
What does the 4 Fund Combo portfolio hold?
Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV) State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index. Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Index Fund ETF Shares (VIOO) Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF (VTV)
What were the return and risk of the 4 Fund Combo portfolio?
From 2021-10-29 to 2026-10-30, the annualized return was +10.7%, maximum drawdown was -19.4%, and Sharpe ratio was 0.46.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021-10-29 to 2026-10-30, the annual return was +10.7% for this split and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the maximum drawdown was -19.4% for this split and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the 4 Fund Combo portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -19.4%, from a high in 2021-12 to a low in 2022-09. It regained the old high 10 months after the low.
How many losing years did the 4 Fund Combo portfolio have?
1 of 4 complete calendar years ended with a loss. The worst was 2022 (-10.5%).
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026-10-30