Ahead of SPY at 14 of 60 month-ends.
Same starting value · dividends reinvested
Selected allocation CAGR +6.1%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio 60/40
13 ETFs · International equity · U.S. small & mid cap · U.S. value
View holdings
International equity · U.S. small & mid cap · U.S. value · U.S. short-term Treasuries · U.S. intermediate Treasuries · REITs & real estate · U.S. large cap · Emerging markets
Where this allocation comes from
Paul Merriman · Merriman Financial Education Foundation, Fine Tuning tables · 2026
Also known as: Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold 60/40 · Ultimate Buy and Hold Moderate
Ten equity classes at 6% each, with 40% bonds split into intermediate Treasuries 20, short-term Treasuries 12 and short-term TIPS 8.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6% | VOO |
| US large-cap value | 6% | IWD |
| US small-cap blend | 6% | VIOO |
| US small-cap value | 6% | AVUV |
| US REITs | 6% | VNQ |
| Developed-market stocks (ex-US) | 6% | VEA |
| International large-cap value | 6% | EFV |
| International small caps | 6% | VSS |
| International small-cap value | 6% | AVDV |
| Emerging-market stocks | 6% | VWO |
| US intermediate-term Treasuries | 20% | SPTI |
| US short-term Treasuries | 12% | SHY |
| US short-term TIPS | 8% | VTIP |
Bonds follow Merriman's 50/30/20 split of intermediate Treasuries, short-term Treasuries and short-term TIPS (tax-deferred version). AVDV listed in September 2019, so history starts then.
Source: paulmerriman.com irp.cdn-website.com portfoliocharts.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
- $10,000 lump sum
- Monthly rebalancing
- Dividends reinvested
- Benchmark: SPY
- No taxes or fees
- $10,000 became
- $13,456 SPY alone: $17,597 −$4,141 vs SPY
- Annual return
- +6.1% SPY +12.0% -5.9pp vs SPY
- Max drawdown (month-end)
- -17.7% SPY -23.9% +6.3pp vs SPY Regained 18 mo after the low
- Below the high at period end
- -2.0% 2026-10
Key points for this allocation
- By asset class: equities 62% · bonds 32% · real estate 6%.
- Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 3.0%; the results reinvest dividends.
- During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -15.4%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Overview ⌄
Compare allocations
The same holdings at different splits. Pick a row to update everything below.
Exploration on Lifolio; these counts do not establish investment performance or preference.
Growth
Starting from $10,000, shown with SPY over the same window. Shaded bands mark major market crises.
Declines and recoveries
Month-end decline from the previous high. Closer to 0% means a smaller fall.
The deepest fall was -17.7%, regained 18 months after the low.
Values below 0% are loss periods
Calendar-year returns
Only years with all twelve months. The table also lists the deepest fall within each year (the in-year low).
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 1 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +16.0% | +17.7% | -0.7% |
| 2024 | +6.9% | +24.9% | -2.9% |
| 2023 | +12.0% | +26.2% | -7.0% |
| 2022 | -11.2% | -18.2% | -17.7% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Holdings
Holdings of the selected split and what each one is.
- SPTIState Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF 20%
- SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF 12%
An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 1–3 years.
- VTIPVanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index Fund ETF Shares 8%
- AVDVAvantis International Small Cap Value ETF 6%
- AVUVAvantis US Small Cap Value ETF 6%
- EFViShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF 6%
- IWDiShares Russell 1000 Value ETF 6%
- VEAVanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 6%
- VIOOVanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Index Fund ETF Shares 6%
- VNQVanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares 6%
An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities.
- VOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF 6%
A Vanguard ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index.
- VSSVanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares 6%
- VWOVanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 6%
Questions & methodology
Review calculation settings and how to interpret the selected allocation.
What does the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio 60/40 hold?
State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (SPTI) iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 1–3 years. Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index Fund ETF Shares (VTIP) Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF (AVDV) Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV) iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF (EFV) iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VEA) Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Index Fund ETF Shares (VIOO) Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ): An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO): A Vanguard ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index. Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares (VSS) Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VWO)
What were the return and risk of the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio 60/40?
From 2021-10-29 to 2026-10-30, the annualized return was +6.1%, maximum drawdown was -17.7%, and Sharpe ratio was 0.25.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021-10-29 to 2026-10-30, the annual return was +6.1% for this split and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the maximum drawdown was -17.7% for this split and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio 60/40 fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -17.7%, from a high in 2021-12 to a low in 2022-09. It regained the old high 18 months after the low.
How many losing years did the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio 60/40 have?
1 of 4 complete calendar years ended with a loss. The worst was 2022 (-11.2%).
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026-10-30