Ahead of SPY at 7 of 60 month-ends.
Same starting value · dividends reinvested
Selected allocation CAGR +9.1%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio
10 ETFs · International equity · U.S. small & mid cap · U.S. value
View holdings
International equity · U.S. small & mid cap · U.S. value · REITs & real estate · U.S. large cap · Emerging markets
Where this allocation comes from
Paul Merriman · Merriman Financial Education Foundation, Ultimate Buy and Hold tables · 2026
Also known as: Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold · Ultimate Buy & Hold Equity Portfolio
An all-stock mix with 10% in each of ten equity classes: US and international large, value, small and small value, REITs and emerging markets.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 10% | VOO |
| US large-cap value | 10% | IWD |
| US small-cap blend | 10% | VIOO |
| US small-cap value | 10% | AVUV |
| US REITs | 10% | VNQ |
| Developed-market stocks (ex-US) | 10% | VEA |
| International large-cap value | 10% | EFV |
| International small caps | 10% | VSS |
| International small-cap value | 10% | AVDV |
| Emerging-market stocks | 10% | VWO |
Uses the ETFs Merriman lists; US large value uses IWD, which tracks the same Russell 1000 Value index as his VONV. AVDV listed in September 2019, so history starts then.
Source: irp.cdn-website.com paulmerriman.com portfoliocharts.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
- $10,000 lump sum
- Monthly rebalancing
- Dividends reinvested
- Benchmark: SPY
- No taxes or fees
- $10,000 became
- $15,441 SPY alone: $17,597 −$2,156 vs SPY
- Annual return
- +9.1% SPY +12.0% -2.9pp vs SPY
- Max drawdown (month-end)
- -23.8% SPY -23.9% +0.1pp vs SPY Regained 15 mo after the low
- Below the high at period end
- -3.4% 2026-10
Key points for this allocation
- By asset class: equities 90% · real estate 10%.
- Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.4%; the results reinvest dividends.
- During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -20.9%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Overview ⌄
Compare allocations
The same holdings at different splits. Pick a row to update everything below.
Exploration on Lifolio; these counts do not establish investment performance or preference.
Growth
Starting from $10,000, shown with SPY over the same window. Shaded bands mark major market crises.
Declines and recoveries
Month-end decline from the previous high. Closer to 0% means a smaller fall.
The deepest fall was -23.8%, regained 15 months after the low.
Values below 0% are loss periods
Calendar-year returns
Only years with all twelve months. The table also lists the deepest fall within each year (the in-year low).
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 2 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +22.7% | +17.7% | -1.5% |
| 2024 | +9.5% | +24.9% | -4.5% |
| 2023 | +16.9% | +26.2% | -10.9% |
| 2022 | -14.4% | -18.2% | -23.8% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Holdings
Holdings of the selected split and what each one is.
- AVDVAvantis International Small Cap Value ETF 10%
- AVUVAvantis US Small Cap Value ETF 10%
- EFViShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF 10%
- IWDiShares Russell 1000 Value ETF 10%
- VEAVanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 10%
- VIOOVanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Index Fund ETF Shares 10%
- VNQVanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares 10%
An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities.
- VOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF 10%
A Vanguard ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index.
- VSSVanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares 10%
- VWOVanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 10%
Questions & methodology
Review calculation settings and how to interpret the selected allocation.
What does the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio hold?
Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF (AVDV) Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV) iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF (EFV) iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VEA) Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Index Fund ETF Shares (VIOO) Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ): An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO): A Vanguard ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index. Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares (VSS) Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VWO)
What were the return and risk of the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio?
From 2021-10-29 to 2026-10-30, the annualized return was +9.1%, maximum drawdown was -23.8%, and Sharpe ratio was 0.39.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021-10-29 to 2026-10-30, the annual return was +9.1% for this split and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the maximum drawdown was -23.8% for this split and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -23.8%, from a high in 2021-12 to a low in 2022-09. It regained the old high 15 months after the low.
How many losing years did the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio have?
1 of 4 complete calendar years ended with a loss. The worst was 2022 (-14.4%).
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026-10-30