Ahead of SPY at 3 of 60 month-ends.
Same starting value · dividends reinvested
Selected allocation CAGR +5.1%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
Swensen Portfolio
6 ETFs · U.S. intermediate Treasuries · Inflation-linked bonds · International equity
View holdings
U.S. intermediate Treasuries · Inflation-linked bonds · International equity · REITs & real estate · U.S. total market · Emerging markets
Where this allocation comes from
David Swensen · Unconventional Success · 2005
Also known as: David Swensen Portfolio · David Swensen Lazy Portfolio · Unconventional Success portfolio
US stocks 30, developed stocks 15, emerging stocks 5, REITs 20, US Treasuries 15 and TIPS 15, recommended to individuals by Yale's endowment chief.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| US total stock market | 30% | VTI |
| Developed-market stocks (ex-US) | 15% | VEA |
| Emerging-market stocks | 5% | VWO |
| US REITs | 20% | VNQ |
| US intermediate-term Treasuries | 15% | IEF |
| US inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS) | 15% | TIP |
The book does not set a Treasury maturity; Lifolio uses intermediate Treasuries (IEF, 7–10 years). This is not Yale's endowment portfolio, and Yale is not involved.
Source: yalealumnimagazine.com portfoliocharts.com optimizedportfolio.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
- $10,000 lump sum
- Monthly rebalancing
- Dividends reinvested
- Benchmark: SPY
- No taxes or fees
- $10,000 became
- $12,824 SPY alone: $17,597 −$4,773 vs SPY
- Annual return
- +5.1% SPY +12.0% -6.9pp vs SPY
- Max drawdown (month-end)
- -23.1% SPY -23.9% +0.9pp vs SPY Regained 22 mo after the low
- Below the high at period end
- -1.9% 2026-10
Key points for this allocation
- By asset class: equities 50% · bonds 30% · real estate 20%.
- Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.8%; the results reinvest dividends.
- During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -19.3%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Overview ⌄
Compare allocations
The same holdings at different splits. Pick a row to update everything below.
| Allocation | Details | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +5.1% | -23.1% | 0.15 | ||
| +5.3% | -22.8% | 0.17 |
- Annual return
- +5.1%
- Max drawdown (month-end)
- -23.1%
- Sharpe
- 0.15
- Annual return
- +5.3%
- Max drawdown (month-end)
- -22.8%
- Sharpe
- 0.17
Exploration on Lifolio; these counts do not establish investment performance or preference.
Growth
Starting from $10,000, shown with SPY over the same window. Shaded bands mark major market crises.
Declines and recoveries
Month-end decline from the previous high. Closer to 0% means a smaller fall.
The deepest fall was -23.1%, regained 22 months after the low.
Values below 0% are loss periods
Calendar-year returns
Only years with all twelve months. The table also lists the deepest fall within each year (the in-year low).
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 0 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +14.3% | +17.7% | -2.1% |
| 2024 | +9.1% | +24.9% | -4.1% |
| 2023 | +14.4% | +26.2% | -9.0% |
| 2022 | -18.2% | -18.2% | -23.1% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Holdings
Holdings of the selected split and what each one is.
- VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF 30%
An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market.
- VNQVanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares 20%
An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities.
- IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF 15%
An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 7–10 years.
- TIPiShares TIPS Bond ETF 15%
- VEAVanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 15%
- VWOVanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 5%
Questions & methodology
Review calculation settings and how to interpret the selected allocation.
What does the Swensen Portfolio hold?
Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (VTI): An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market. Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ): An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities. iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF): An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 7–10 years. iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VEA) Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VWO)
What were the return and risk of the Swensen Portfolio?
From 2021-10-29 to 2026-10-30, the annualized return was +5.1%, maximum drawdown was -23.1%, and Sharpe ratio was 0.15.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021-10-29 to 2026-10-30, the annual return was +5.1% for this split and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the maximum drawdown was -23.1% for this split and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the Swensen Portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -23.1%, from a high in 2021-12 to a low in 2022-09. It regained the old high 22 months after the low.
How many losing years did the Swensen Portfolio have?
1 of 4 complete calendar years ended with a loss. The worst was 2022 (-18.2%).
How did other popular splits of the Swensen Portfolio do?
IEF 15% · TIP 15% · VEA 15% · VNQ 20% · VTI 30% · VWO 5%: annualized return +5.1%, maximum drawdown -23.1%. IEF 15% · TIP 15% · VEA 15% · VNQ 15% · VTI 30% · VWO 10%: annualized return +5.3%, maximum drawdown -22.8%.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026-10-30