Backtest

SOXL backtest: lump sum and drawdowns

What returns and drawdowns would a long holding period in a 3× semiconductor ETF have produced?

SOXL 100% from 2010-04-01 to 2026-10-23, USD 10,000 initially, no contributions, reinvested dividends, and USD reporting.

Data as of 2026-10-23

Backtest results

Backtest Period 2010.04.01 ~ 2026.10.23 · 16 yr 7 mo
Final Balance $1.30M
Invested $10,000
Gain +$1.29M
Before taxes and trading costs
Annualized return +34.1%
129.6× in 16 yr 7 mo
20.2pp ahead of SPY
Max drawdown · daily -90.5%
Peak $1.10M → low $104,794
40 months from trough to recovery
Loss after a 1-year hold 33%
61 of 187 past windows
None when held 7+ years
SPY 10%

Performance

Growth Chart

My Portfolio CAGR +34.1%
SPY CAGR +13.9%
Money put in
Shaded: major market crises COVID-19 (Feb–Mar 2020)Bear Market (2022)
Drawdown (same period)
0%-90%Low -90.5% · 2022-10

Holding-period outcomes

Held 1 year(s), 33% of start dates lost money; held 7 years, none did · worst +6.3%/yr

Held Annualized return · worst to best Losses
1 years -85.7% ~ +1291.7% 33%61/187
3 years -25.6% ~ +131.1% 12%20/163
5 years -1.5% ~ +96.4% 0.7%1/139
7 years +6.3% ~ +71.4% 0%0/115
10 years +19.9% ~ +66.9% 0%0/79
Return spread for one holding periodPick a holding period to see its spread and each start month
Worst · average · best by holding period (table)Per-year returns and share of positive periods for 1–10 year holds
Show the numbers
1 years187-85.7%+79.8%+1291.7% 67%
3 years163-25.6%+41.7%+131.1% 88%
5 years139-1.6%+40.7%+96.4% 99%
7 years115+6.3%+42.7%+71.4% 100%
10 years79+19.9%+41.9%+66.9% 100%

Annual & monthly returns

Up in 10 of 15 years · best 2019 +231.8% · worst 2022 -85.7%

Completed months · through 2026-09

Partial years: 2010, 2026. Each year includes only its observed months.

-100%0%100%200%300%201020122014201620182020202220242026
Portfolio SPY
Show the numbers · Completed calendar years
10/15 Positive Years
67% Win Rate
9/15 Beat Benchmark
3yr Longest Winning Streak
1yr Current Streak
±96.3% Annual Return Std Dev
Current Streak 1 mo down
Longest Gain Streak 7mo
Longest Loss Streak 10mo

Trailing returns

Up to 1 year: total return · 3 years and longer: per year As of 9/2026
1 yearstotal +324.7% +15.7% +308.9pp
3 yearsper year +99.7% +22.8% +77.0pp
5 yearsper year +30.6% +13.7% +17.0pp
10 yearsper year +48.0% +15.2% +32.8pp
Fullper year +39.0% +14.0% +25.0pp
Growth Milestones3× in 4.7 yrs · 5× in 6.6 yrs · 10× in 7.2 yrs
129.6× your principal $10,000 → now $1.30M
  1. 1.5× Reached 2011-01 · took 0.8 yrs
  2. 2× Reached 2014-03 · took 3.9 yrs
  3. 3× Reached 2014-11 · took 4.7 yrs
  4. 5× Reached 2016-11 · took 6.6 yrs
  5. 10× Reached 2017-06 · took 7.2 yrs
Purchasing power — assuming 2.5% annual inflation+30.9% a year after inflation · +34.1% before

Annualized return

Nominal +34.1%
Real (Infl.-Adj.) +30.9%

Cumulative return

Nominal +12859.9%
Real (Infl.-Adj.) +8509.4%

Risk & recovery

Deepest fall -90.5% (2022.10) · 1,521 days from peak to recovery · now 72.2% below the peak

vs SPY

The same money in SPY would have grown to $86,961, $1.21M less than this portfolio

Assets & diversification

Scenarios

Shuffles past monthly returns into 500 possible futures

Data & export

17 years of yearly and 4,168 days of daily records · CSV download