TQQQ monthly investing backtest
What drawdowns and recoveries would monthly investing in a 3× leveraged ETF have involved?
TQQQ 100% from 2010-03-01 to 2026-10-23, with KRW 10 million initially and KRW 500,000 monthly, reinvested dividends, and KRW reporting.
Data as of 2026-10-23
Backtest results
Backtest Period 2010.03.01 ~ 2026.10.23 · 16 yr 8 mo
Final Balance ₩8.9B
Annualized return +42.0%
Max drawdown · daily -80.3%
Loss after a 1-year hold 14%
Performance
Growth Chart
My Portfolio CAGR +42.0%
SPY CAGR +15.2%
Money put in
Shaded: major market crises COVID-19 (Feb–Mar 2020)Bear Market (2022)
Holding-period outcomes
Held 1 year(s), 14% of start dates lost money; held 5 years, none did · worst +12.2%/yr
Held Annualized return · worst to best Losses
1 years -77.8% ~ +254.8% 14%27/188
3 years -4.3% ~ +112.4% 0.6%1/164
5 years +12.2% ~ +74.5% 0%0/140
7 years +21.6% ~ +60.4% 0%0/116
10 years +32.7% ~ +61.6% 0%0/80
Return spread for one holding periodPick a holding period to see its spread and each start month
Worst · average · best by holding period (table)Per-year returns and share of positive periods for 1–10 year holds
Annual & monthly returns
Up in 12 of 15 years · best 2023 +202.4% · worst 2022 -77.8%
Completed months · through 2026-09
Current Streak 1 mo down
Longest Gain Streak 7mo
Longest Loss Streak 4mo
Trailing returns
1 yearstotal +46.8% +11.7% +35.1pp
3 yearsper year +65.5% +22.8% +42.7pp
5 yearsper year +24.6% +16.7% +7.9pp
10 yearsper year +43.7% +17.6% +26.1pp
Fullper year +43.8% +15.4% +28.4pp
| Cumulative return | Annualized return | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 7Y | 10Y | Full | |
| My portfolio | +6.61% | -15.45% | +67.48% | +39.84% | +46.76% | +65.53% | +24.57% | +42.59% | +43.74% | +43.77% |
| SPY | -2.26% | -10.32% | +4.98% | +5.86% | +11.67% | +22.84% | +16.67% | +18.04% | +17.61% | +15.41% |
| Difference | +8.87pp | -5.13pp | +62.50pp | +33.98pp | +35.09pp | +42.69pp | +7.90pp | +24.55pp | +26.13pp | +28.36pp |
Growth Milestones3× in 3.7 yrs · 5× in 4.7 yrs · 10× in 7.7 yrs
81.2× your principal ₩110M → now ₩8.9B
- 1.5× Reached 2010-12 · took 0.8 yrs
- 2× Reached 2012-03 · took 2.0 yrs
- 3× Reached 2013-10 · took 3.7 yrs
- 5× Reached 2014-11 · took 4.7 yrs
- 10× Reached 2017-10 · took 7.7 yrs
Purchasing power — assuming 2.5% annual inflation+38.5% a year after inflation · +42.0% before
Annualized return
Nominal +42.0%
Real (Infl.-Adj.) +38.5%
Cumulative return
Nominal +34242.1%
Real (Infl.-Adj.) +22662.9%
Risk & recovery
Deepest fall -80.3% (2022.12) · 941 days from peak to recovery · now 33.0% below the peak
vs SPY
The same money in SPY would have grown to ₩543M, ₩8.3B less than this portfolio
Assets & diversification
Scenarios
Shuffles past monthly returns into 500 possible futures
Data & export
17 years of yearly and 4,191 days of daily records · CSV download