Backtest

TQQQ and UPRO leverage backtest: adding gold and bonds

How would a TQQQ, bond and gold mix compare with UPRO and TMF in returns and drawdowns?

Compare TQQQ 50%, TLT 30%, GLD 20% with UPRO 55%, TMF 45% from 2010-03-01 to 2026-10-23. Each starts with USD 10,000, reinvests dividends and rebalances quarterly.

Data as of 2026-10-23

Backtest results

Backtest Period 2010.03.01 ~ 2026.10.23 · 16 yr 8 mo
Final Balance $571,344
Invested $10,000
Gain +$561,344
Before taxes and trading costs
Annualized return +27.5%
57.1× in 16 yr 8 mo
13.2pp ahead of SPY
Max drawdown · daily -58.7%
Peak $336,895 → low $139,025
19 months from trough to recovery
Loss after a 1-year hold 10%
18 of 188 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 10%

Performance

Growth Chart

My Portfolio CAGR +27.5%
SPY CAGR +14.3%
Money put in
Shaded: major market crises COVID-19 (Feb–Mar 2020)Bear Market (2022)
Drawdown (same period)
0%-59%Low -58.7% · 2022-11

Holding-period outcomes

Held 1 year(s), 10% of start dates lost money; held 3 years, none did · worst +1.4%/yr

Held Annualized return · worst to best Losses
1 years -55.2% ~ +109.8% 10%18/188
3 years +1.4% ~ +61.8% 0%0/164
5 years +12.6% ~ +45.0% 0%0/140
7 years +17.8% ~ +37.0% 0%0/116
10 years +20.1% ~ +36.3% 0%0/80
Return spread for one holding periodPick a holding period to see its spread and each start month
Worst · average · best by holding period (table)Per-year returns and share of positive periods for 1–10 year holds
Show the numbers
1 years188-55.2%+31.0%+109.9% 90%
3 years164+1.4%+26.7%+61.8% 100%
5 years140+12.6%+25.8%+45.0% 100%
7 years116+17.8%+26.9%+37.0% 100%
10 years80+20.1%+26.8%+36.3% 100%

Annual & monthly returns

Up in 13 of 15 years · best 2023 +87.5% · worst 2022 -55.2%

Completed months · through 2026-09

Partial years: 2010, 2026. Each year includes only its observed months.

-100%-50%0%50%100%201020122014201620182020202220242026
Portfolio SPY
Show the numbers · Completed calendar years
13/15 Positive Years
87% Win Rate
13/15 Beat Benchmark
7yr Longest Winning Streak
3yr Current Streak
±35.3% Annual Return Std Dev
Current Streak 1 mo down
Longest Gain Streak 6mo
Longest Loss Streak 4mo

Trailing returns

Up to 1 year: total return · 3 years and longer: per year As of 9/2026
1 yearstotal +31.2% +15.7% +15.5pp
3 yearsper year +42.1% +22.8% +19.4pp
5 yearsper year +17.5% +13.7% +3.8pp
10 yearsper year +27.4% +15.2% +12.2pp
Fullper year +28.2% +14.4% +13.8pp
Growth Milestones3× in 3.8 yrs · 5× in 6.4 yrs · 10× in 9.1 yrs
57.1× your principal $10,000 → now $571,344
  1. 1.5× Reached 2011-01 · took 0.9 yrs
  2. 2× Reached 2012-02 · took 2.0 yrs
  3. 3× Reached 2013-11 · took 3.8 yrs
  4. 5× Reached 2016-07 · took 6.4 yrs
  5. 10× Reached 2019-03 · took 9.1 yrs
Purchasing power — assuming 2.5% annual inflation+24.4% a year after inflation · +27.5% before

Annualized return

Nominal +27.5%
Real (Infl.-Adj.) +24.4%

Cumulative return

Nominal +5613.4%
Real (Infl.-Adj.) +3687.0%

Risk & recovery

Deepest fall -58.7% (2022.11) · 938 days from peak to recovery · now 15.5% below the peak

vs SPY

The same money in SPY would have grown to $92,257, $479,088 less than this portfolio

Assets & diversification

Profit contribution: TQQQ +$518,007 · GLD +$64,998 · TLT -$21,660

Scenarios

Shuffles past monthly returns into 500 possible futures

Data & export

17 years of yearly and 4,191 days of daily records · CSV download