Backtest

SPY backtest in USD: long-term returns without currency effects

What was SPY’s return in USD before translating the investment into KRW?

SPY 100% from 2008-10-01 to 2026-10-23, USD 10,000 initially, no contributions and reinvested dividends. Compare with the KRW return over the same period.

Data as of 2026-10-23

Backtest results

Backtest Period 2008.10.01 ~ 2026.10.23 · 18 yr 1 mo
Final Balance $90,864
Invested $10,000
Gain +$80,864
Before taxes and trading costs
Annualized return +13.0%
9.1× in 18 yr 1 mo
Max drawdown · daily -40.8%
Peak $10,006 → low $5,920
10 months from trough to recovery
Loss after a 1-year hold 9%
19 of 205 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 9%

Performance

Growth Chart

My Portfolio CAGR +13.0%
SPY CAGR +13.0%
Money put in
Shaded: major market crises GFC (2008–09)COVID-19 (Feb–Mar 2020)Bear Market (2022)
Drawdown (same period)
0%-41%Low -40.8% · 2009-03

Holding-period outcomes

Held 1 year(s), 9% of start dates lost money; held 3 years, none did · worst +1.4%/yr

Held Annualized return · worst to best Losses
1 years -18.2% ~ +56.3% 9%19/205
3 years +1.4% ~ +26.0% 0%0/181
5 years +6.7% ~ +22.9% 0%0/157
7 years +9.5% ~ +17.3% 0%0/133
10 years +10.4% ~ +16.6% 0%0/97
Return spread for one holding periodPick a holding period to see its spread and each start month
Worst · average · best by holding period (table)Per-year returns and share of positive periods for 1–10 year holds
Show the numbers
1 years205-18.2%+15.5%+56.3% 91%
3 years181+1.4%+14.2%+26.0% 100%
5 years157+6.7%+13.9%+22.9% 100%
7 years133+9.5%+13.7%+17.3% 100%
10 years97+10.4%+13.7%+16.6% 100%

Annual & monthly returns

Up in 15 of 17 years · best 2013 +32.3% · worst 2022 -18.2%

Completed months · through 2026-09

Partial years: 2008, 2026. Each year includes only its observed months.

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2008201120142017202020232026
Portfolio SPY
Show the numbers · Completed calendar years
15/17 Positive Years
88% Win Rate
0/17 Beat Benchmark
9yr Longest Winning Streak
3yr Current Streak
±13.3% Annual Return Std Dev
Current Streak 2 mo down
Longest Gain Streak 15mo
Longest Loss Streak 5mo

Trailing returns

Up to 1 year: total return · 3 years and longer: per year As of 9/2026
1 yearstotal +15.7% +15.7% +0.0pp
3 yearsper year +22.8% +22.8% +0.0pp
5 yearsper year +13.7% +13.7% +0.0pp
10 yearsper year +15.2% +15.2% +0.0pp
Fullper year +13.1% +13.1% +0.0pp
Growth Milestones2× in 6.1 yrs · 3× in 9.8 yrs · 5× in 12.9 yrs
9.1× your principal $10,000 → now $90,864
  1. 1.5× Reached 2013-04 · took 4.5 yrs
  2. 2× Reached 2014-11 · took 6.1 yrs
  3. 3× Reached 2018-08 · took 9.8 yrs
  4. 5× Reached 2021-08 · took 12.9 yrs
  5. 10× Needs another 10% gain
Purchasing power — assuming 2.5% annual inflation+10.2% a year after inflation · +13.0% before

Annualized return

Nominal +13.0%
Real (Infl.-Adj.) +10.2%

Cumulative return

Nominal +808.6%
Real (Infl.-Adj.) +481.7%

Risk & recovery

Deepest fall -40.8% (2009.03) · 453 days from peak to recovery · now 2.5% below the peak

vs SPY

The same money in SPY would also have grown to $90,864, level with this portfolio

Assets & diversification

Scenarios

Shuffles past monthly returns into 500 possible futures

Data & export

19 years of yearly and 4,545 days of daily records · CSV download