Backtest

SPY and VYM monthly investing backtest: S&P 500 and high dividends

How would equal investments in the S&P 500 and high-dividend stocks have performed?

SPY 50% and VYM 50% from 2015-01-02 to 2026-10-23, USD 10,000 initially and USD 500 monthly, reinvested dividends, monthly rebalancing, and USD reporting.

Data as of 2026-10-23

Backtest results

Backtest Period 2015.01.02 ~ 2026.10.23 · 11 yr 10 mo
Final Balance $204,230
Invested $80,500
Gain +$123,730
Before taxes and trading costs
Annualized return +12.2%
1.3pp behind SPY
Counting when you added money: +13.3%
Max drawdown · daily -34.3%
Peak $59,836 → low $39,681
8 months from trough to recovery
Loss after a 1-year hold 12%
16 of 130 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%

Performance

Growth Chart

My Portfolio CAGR +12.2%
SPY CAGR +13.6%
Money put in
Shaded: major market crises COVID-19 (Feb–Mar 2020)Bear Market (2022)
Drawdown (same period)
0%-34%Low -34.3% · 2020-03

Holding-period outcomes

Held 1 year(s), 12% of start dates lost money; held 3 years, none did · worst +2.5%/yr

Held Annualized return · worst to best Losses
1 years -10.9% ~ +52.1% 12%16/130
3 years +2.5% ~ +21.6% 0%0/106
5 years +5.3% ~ +17.5% 0%0/82
7 years +10.3% ~ +15.3% 0%0/58
10 years +10.8% ~ +14.0% 0%0/22
Return spread for one holding periodPick a holding period to see its spread and each start month
Worst · average · best by holding period (table)Per-year returns and share of positive periods for 1–10 year holds
Show the numbers
1 years130-10.9%+13.3%+52.1% 88%
3 years106+2.5%+12.4%+21.6% 100%
5 years82+5.3%+12.2%+17.5% 100%
7 years58+10.3%+12.1%+15.3% 100%
10 years22+10.8%+12.7%+14.0% 100%

Annual & monthly returns

Up in 9 of 11 years · best 2019 +27.6% · worst 2022 -9.6%

Completed months · through 2026-09

Partial years: 2026. Each year includes only its observed months.

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%201520172019202120232025
Portfolio SPY
Show the numbers · Completed calendar years
9/11 Positive Years
82% Win Rate
2/11 Beat Benchmark
3yr Longest Winning Streak
3yr Current Streak
±11.9% Annual Return Std Dev
Current Streak 1 mo up
Longest Gain Streak 10mo
Longest Loss Streak 3mo

Trailing returns

Up to 1 year: total return · 3 years and longer: per year As of 9/2026
1 yearstotal +14.4% +15.7% -1.3pp
3 yearsper year +20.3% +22.8% -2.5pp
5 yearsper year +12.8% +13.7% -0.9pp
10 yearsper year +13.3% +15.2% -1.9pp
Fullper year +12.1% +13.7% -1.5pp
Growth Milestones2× in 9.5 yrs
2.5× your principal $80,500 → now $204,230
  1. 1.5× Reached 2020-12 · took 5.9 yrs
  2. 2× Reached 2024-07 · took 9.5 yrs
  3. 3× Needs another 18% gain
  4. 5× Needs another 97% gain
Purchasing power — assuming 2.5% annual inflation+9.5% a year after inflation · +12.2% before

Annualized return

Nominal +12.2%
Real (Infl.-Adj.) +9.5%

Cumulative return

Nominal +291.0%
Real (Infl.-Adj.) +192.1%

Risk & recovery

Deepest fall -34.3% (2020.03) · 271 days from peak to recovery · now 2.4% below the peak

vs SPY

The same money in SPY would have grown to $225,941, $21,710 more than this portfolio

Assets & diversification

Profit contribution: SPY +$67,096 · VYM +$56,635

Scenarios

Shuffles past monthly returns into 500 possible futures

Data & export

12 years of yearly and 2,971 days of daily records · CSV download