Ahead of SPY at 1 of 60 month-ends.
Same starting value · dividends reinvested
Selected allocation CAGR +3.9%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
SPY + TLT
2 ETFs · U.S. large cap · U.S. long-term Treasuries
- $10,000 lump sum
- Monthly rebalancing
- Dividends reinvested
- Benchmark: SPY
- No taxes or fees
- $10,000 became
- $12,078 SPY alone: $17,597 −$5,519 vs SPY
- Annual return
- +3.9% SPY +12.0% -8.1pp vs SPY
- Max drawdown (month-end)
- -26.2% SPY -23.9% -2.3pp vs SPY Regained 24 mo after the low
- Below the high at period end
- -0.7% 2026-10
Key points for this allocation
- By asset class: equities 60% · bonds 40%.
- Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.5%; the results reinvest dividends.
- During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -22.6%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Overview ⌄
Compare allocations
The same holdings at different splits. Pick a row to update everything below.
| Allocation | Details | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +3.9% | -26.2% | 0.06 | 24 | ||
| +1.9% | -26.8% | -0.09 | 4 | ||
| -2.1% | -32.4% | -0.39 | 1 |
- Annual return
- +3.9%
- Max drawdown (month-end)
- -26.2%
- Sharpe
- 0.06
- Runs in 90 days
- 24
- Annual return
- +1.9%
- Max drawdown (month-end)
- -26.8%
- Sharpe
- -0.09
- Runs in 90 days
- 4
- Annual return
- -2.1%
- Max drawdown (month-end)
- -32.4%
- Sharpe
- -0.39
- Runs in 90 days
- 1
Exploration on Lifolio; these counts do not establish investment performance or preference.
Growth
Starting from $10,000, shown with SPY over the same window. Shaded bands mark major market crises.
Declines and recoveries
Month-end decline from the previous high. Closer to 0% means a smaller fall.
The deepest fall was -26.2%, regained 24 months after the low.
Values below 0% are loss periods
Calendar-year returns
Only years with all twelve months. The table also lists the deepest fall within each year (the in-year low).
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 0 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +12.4% | +17.7% | -4.9% |
| 2024 | +10.7% | +24.9% | -5.0% |
| 2023 | +16.4% | +26.2% | -11.3% |
| 2022 | -23.3% | -18.2% | -26.2% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Holdings
Holdings of the selected split and what each one is.
- SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 60%
A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index.
- TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 40%
An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities over 20 years.
Questions & methodology
Review calculation settings and how to interpret the selected allocation.
What does the SPY + TLT portfolio hold?
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities over 20 years.
What were the return and risk of the SPY + TLT portfolio?
From 2021-10-29 to 2026-10-30, the annualized return was +3.9%, maximum drawdown was -26.2%, and Sharpe ratio was 0.06.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021-10-29 to 2026-10-30, the annual return was +3.9% for this split and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the maximum drawdown was -26.2% for this split and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the SPY + TLT portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -26.2%, from a high in 2021-12 to a low in 2022-09. It regained the old high 24 months after the low.
How many losing years did the SPY + TLT portfolio have?
1 of 4 complete calendar years ended with a loss. The worst was 2022 (-23.3%).
How did other popular splits of the SPY + TLT portfolio do?
SPY 60% · TLT 40%: annualized return +3.9%, maximum drawdown -26.2%. SPY 50% · TLT 50%: annualized return +1.9%, maximum drawdown -26.8%. SPY 30% · TLT 70%: annualized return -2.1%, maximum drawdown -32.4%.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026-10-30· Usage statistics through: 2026-11-02