Backtest

Three-fund portfolio backtest: monthly VTI, VXUS and BND

How would regular contributions to US stocks, international stocks and bonds have performed?

VTI 42%, VXUS 18% and BND 40% from 2011-02-01 to 2026-10-23, USD 10,000 initially and USD 500 monthly, reinvested dividends and monthly rebalancing.

Data as of 2026-10-23

Backtest results

Backtest Period 2011.02.01 ~ 2026.10.23 · 15 yr 9 mo
Final Balance $219,165
Invested $104,000
Gain +$115,165
Before taxes and trading costs
Annualized return +7.9%
6.1pp behind SPY
Counting when you added money: +8.1%
Max drawdown · daily -22.1%
Peak $136,426 → low $110,998
17 months from trough to recovery
Loss after a 1-year hold 14%
24 of 177 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 10%

Performance

Growth Chart

My Portfolio CAGR +7.9%
SPY CAGR +13.9%
Money put in
Shaded: major market crises COVID-19 (Feb–Mar 2020)Bear Market (2022)
Drawdown (same period)
0%-22%Low -22.1% · 2022-10

Holding-period outcomes

Held 1 year(s), 14% of start dates lost money; held 3 years, none did · worst +1.4%/yr

Held Annualized return · worst to best Losses
1 years -17.7% ~ +33.9% 14%24/177
3 years +1.4% ~ +15.7% 0%0/153
5 years +3.6% ~ +11.1% 0%0/129
7 years +5.4% ~ +9.7% 0%0/105
10 years +5.5% ~ +9.7% 0%0/69
Return spread for one holding periodPick a holding period to see its spread and each start month
Worst · average · best by holding period (table)Per-year returns and share of positive periods for 1–10 year holds
Show the numbers
1 years177-17.7%+8.4%+33.9% 86%
3 years153+1.4%+7.7%+15.7% 100%
5 years129+3.6%+7.3%+11.1% 100%
7 years105+5.4%+7.5%+9.7% 100%
10 years69+5.5%+7.5%+9.7% 100%

Annual & monthly returns

Up in 11 of 14 years · best 2019 +20.3% · worst 2022 -16.1%

Completed months · through 2026-09

Partial years: 2011, 2026. Each year includes only its observed months.

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%20112013201520172019202120232025
Portfolio SPY
Show the numbers · Completed calendar years
11/14 Positive Years
79% Win Rate
1/14 Beat Benchmark
3yr Longest Winning Streak
3yr Current Streak
±9.4% Annual Return Std Dev
Current Streak 1 mo up
Longest Gain Streak 15mo
Longest Loss Streak 5mo

Trailing returns

Up to 1 year: total return · 3 years and longer: per year As of 9/2026
1 yearstotal +8.9% +15.7% -6.8pp
3 yearsper year +14.5% +22.8% -8.3pp
5 yearsper year +6.8% +13.7% -6.9pp
10 yearsper year +8.4% +15.2% -6.9pp
Fullper year +7.9% +14.0% -6.1pp
Growth Milestones2× in 14.7 yrs
2.1× your principal $104,000 → now $219,165
  1. 1.5× Reached 2019-11 · took 8.8 yrs
  2. 2× Reached 2025-10 · took 14.7 yrs
  3. 3× Needs another 42% gain
  4. 5× Needs another 137% gain
Purchasing power — assuming 2.5% annual inflation+5.2% a year after inflation · +7.9% before

Annualized return

Nominal +7.9%
Real (Infl.-Adj.) +5.2%

Cumulative return

Nominal +229.1%
Real (Infl.-Adj.) +123.2%

Risk & recovery

Deepest fall -22.1% (2022.10) · 850 days from peak to recovery · now 2.6% below the peak

vs SPY

The same money in SPY would have grown to $407,240, $188,075 more than this portfolio

Assets & diversification

Profit contribution: VTI +$83,716 · VXUS +$23,159 · BND +$8,290

Scenarios

Shuffles past monthly returns into 500 possible futures

Data & export

16 years of yearly and 3,957 days of daily records · CSV download